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Discussion of the Fed and Treasury(2)

Discussion of the Fed and Treasury(2)

This paper consists of two parts. Part I focuses on the first path— duration compression. While it can bring long‑end supply‑demand dynamics from out‑of‑control to manageable, it cannot eliminate term premium through purely engineering‑style measures. Should the duration machine cease to function, the yield curve may clear via a bear‑steepening move. More critically, Path One and Path Two are not inherently compatible: should long‑term interest rates resume their rise, the debt‑financing chain underpinning AI capital expenditure will bear the brunt.…

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